Chance Discovery - 你認真了

去年,系上請了一位日本籍教授來學校演講,談的主題叫做 Chance Discovery,演講者花了許多力氣,解釋什麼叫做 chance ,discovery 的意義又是什麼。

Chance Discovery is the discovery of chance, rather than discovery by chance.

A “chance” here means a new event/situation that can be conceived either as an opportunity or as a risk in the future.

The “discovery” of chances is of crucial importance since it may have a significant impact on human decision making. Desirable effects of opportunities should be actively promoted, whereas preventive measures should be taken in the case of discovered risks.

In other words, Chance Discovery aims to provide means for inventing or surviving the future, rather than simply predicting the future.

.. Chance Discovery is a research to study how to discover rare or novel events causing potentially significant situation. Although the event itself could not be significant.


無奈資質駑鈍如我,花了八十分鐘,仍然搞不清楚 chance discovery 的中心宗旨。事後,還透過 Google Scholar 找了幾篇論文,想要透過「原典」一窺究竟,但是仍然一無所獲。甚至,我還和指導教授聊過,我對 Chance Discovery 懷抱的奇怪憧憬,雖然我實在不明白這個觀念要如何和我已經掌握的知識連結。

直到今天,看到一篇 Blog Post - Chance Discovery - is there a there there 才明白這不是我的問題,在這個領域學養經驗遠勝於我的實務界中人,對於這個概念,也是有許多點點點的話要說。

首先這個作者虧了這群作者(chance discovery 是日本人搞出來的)的英文是confusing and contradictory,然後非常認真的分析了這個領域幾個重要的論述和演算法,每一段分析都用「懷疑」的口氣結尾,然後下結論說要有個口袋很深的老闆,才能試試這個玩意兒。總之,老外酸起人來,一本正經的讓人忍俊不住,酸歸酸,看完了這篇文章,我還是抓不住 (can't catch) 它(chance discovery)。

上禮拜,實驗室裡的同學告訴我,像這篇文章作者的行為,用 PTT 的說法,應該是:『你認真了』。

(為了平衡報導, Chance Discovery 的網站在此)

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